It hasn’t been uncommon for a power-conference school to miss college baseball’s Field of 64 despite an RPI in the 20s or 30s.
We said earlier this week that Florida was going to have a long week after dropping its win-or-go-home game in the SEC tourney. Will the Gators hear their names called on Monday?
As of Saturday morning, we think yes. And Florida has Florida State to thank.
The Seminoles, sixth in the ACC, went 1-1 in the ACC Tournament this week. With an RPI of 49 per WarrenNolan.com, that would put FSU on the bubble most years. But an 18-14 conference record, including the tourney, is likely enough to put the Seminoles in the field as a 3-seed – especially in the final season for coach Mike Martin, who has taken FSU to the tourney in each of his 39 seasons.
Florida, meanwhile, went 13-17 in the SEC, 13-18 if you include the Gators’ SEC tourney loss earlier this week. A year ago, Kentucky went 13-18 in the SEC and had an RPI of 31 but was left out of the field, largely because of its sub-.500 record in the conference. Florida was the 11-seed in the SEC tourney; Kentucky was the 10-seed.
So, what’s the difference?
The Gators swept three games from Florida State this year. If the Seminoles are in the field, we figure Florida’s three wins over FSU – plus an RPI 20 spots better, the second strongest schedule in the nation and a 16-20 record against Q1 squads – will go a long way toward putting them in the field.
That would give the SEC 10 teams in the field, with Missouri (RPI 30) the odd team out after dropping three close games to Florida the final weekend of the year and losing its one-and-done game in the SEC tourney to Texas A&M.
FSU’s inclusion likely would mean that Virginia (RPI 48) would fall short, in large part to its sub-.500 record in the conference. Oklahoma (RPI 42) also is worth watching because of the sub-.500 metric, as well as its 4-12 record against Q1 opponents. Duke (RPI 44) has a .500 ACC record, including the tourney, and hard-charging Arizona (RPI 46) are worth watching come Monday.
Elsewhere of note…
- America East – top-seeded Stony Brook edged Binghamton 5-4 Friday. The teams will meet again today after Binghamton eliminated Hartford; the Sea Wolves have yet to lose and have two chances to claim league’s automatic bid.
- American – Bubble teams are pulling for Connecticut (RPI 28), which is in the semifinals with No. 8 Wichita State, No. 2 Cincinnati and No. 6 UCF. The Golden Knights (RPI 40) also might be worth pulling for as they already may be safe for an at-large bid. But if the Shockers (RPI 77), who eliminated No. 1 East Carolina, or Bearcats (RPI 108) win the tourney, that means a stolen bid.
- ACC – Georgia Tech is playing for a national seed, and North Carolina and NC State could have a shot to host a Regional. Boston College (RPI 53) has made things interesting. If the Eagles win it all, they not only would steal a bid, but they also might knock an ACC team out of the mix.
- A-Sun – No. 6 Stetson is (RPI 182) is in the driver’s seat, waiting for No. 2 Liberty or No. 4 Jacksonville. The Flames, with an RPI of 47 have a shot at an at-large bid.
- A-10 – It’s No. 4 Fordham and No. 3 Dayton for the automatic bid, with the Flyers needing two wins and the Rams one.
- Big East – Bubble teams are pulling for Creighton (RPI 22) to finish things off. The Bluejays haven’t lost yet and await the winner of St. John’s and Xavier.
- Big South – It’s No. 1 Campbell and No. 3 Winthrop for the title. The Camels won 13-5 Friday in a game between the two teams.
- Big Ten – Bubble teams are pulling for Nebraska (RPI 34) or Michigan (RPI 39) as Ohio State or Minnesota could steal a bid.
- Big 12 – Oklahoma State (RPI 6), Texas Tech (RPI 10) and West Virginia (RPI 11) are playing for national seeds. Baylor (RPI 25) is in good shape as a 2-seed. TCU (RPI 68) is still in the mix and would steal a bid if it wins it all.
- Big West – UCSB (RPI 21) has dropped its first two games in its final league series to Cal Poly and still needs one win to clinch the league’s automatic bid. Should the Mustangs win the title, that will be another stolen bid.
- CAA – Elon and William & Mary are battling for the right to play UNCW, which is one win away from an NCAA tourney appearance in coach Mark Scalf’s last season.
- C-USA – FAU (RPI 37) appears to be in good shape for now, but Southern Miss (RPI 52) may need to win the whole thing. Rice (RPI 140) and UTSA (RPI 130) are looking to steal a bid.
- Horizon – It’s No. 2 UIC and No. 3 Milwaukee for the title after both teams beat No. 1 Wright State on Friday. The Flames need just one win.
- MAAC – No. 1 Canisius, No. 2 Quinnipiac, No. 3 Farifield and No. 5 Manhattan are fighting it out for the league’s one bid.
- MAC – No. 1 Central Michigan awaits the winner of No. 5 Northern Illinois and No. 2 Ball State and needs just one win to advance to the NCAA tourney.
- MVC – Dallas Baptist (RPI 23) is in the driver’s seat and faces Indiana State (RPI 32) in the final with the Patriots needing just one win. Illinois State (RPI 27) is out of the league tourney but is poised for an at-large bid.
- Mountain West – No. 3 UNLV and No. 4 Nevada are playing for the right to tackle unbeaten No. 1 Fresno State (RPI 35). If the Bulldogs fail to win it, another bubble team would be in danger.
- NEC – Top-seeded Bryant needs one win to win the title and will field a challenge from No. 2 Central Connecticut or No. 3 Wagner.
- OVC – No. 2 Austin Peay and No. 3 Morehead State will play for the right to face unbeaten No. 1 Jacksonville State.
- SEC – Georgia (RPI 3) and Vanderbilt (RPI 1) are locks for national seeds. LSU (RPI 16) is playing to host a Regional. Ole Miss (RPI 24) is likely locked into a 2-seed for the NCAA tourney.
- Southern – No. 1 Samford (RPI 62) is the only remaining team with an outside shot at an at-large bid, but No. 2 Wofford, No. 4 Mercer and No. 6 ETSU are still alive in what should be a fun couple of days in the conference tourney.
- Southland – No. 5 McNeese is unbeaten and awaits the winner of No. 3 Southeastern Louisiana and No. 2 Central Arkansas in what is expected to be a one-bid league.
- Summit – It’s no shock that Oral Roberts is playing for the title. What is a little different is that ORU is the No. 3 seed and needs to beat No. 1 Omaha twice to reach the NCAA tourney.
- Sun Belt – Texas State (RPI 51) is out, leaving Georgia Southern (RPI 67), Coastal Carolina (RPI 71), Troy and No. 10 seed ULM fighting for the automatic bid.
- West Coast – Things get interesting here as top-seeded BYU (RPI 45) was eliminated. No. 4 Loyola Marymount (RPI 85) hasn’t lost, and St. Mary’s (RPI 57) stands in its way for the title. It’s hard to see three teams making the NCAA field if LMU wins.
- WAC – Grand Canyon is in the driver’s seat and will play the winner of No. 1 New Mexico State and No. 3 Sacramento State.