Over the years, we’ve come to expect a curve ball or two from the NCAA committee that selects the 64 college baseball teams invited to embark on the road to Omaha.
Today, the committee gave us two, one a filthy curve that we never saw coming, the other flat and unremarkable, leaving us with the feeling that we would destroy it if we saw it again.
The selection of TCU was surprising. The Horned Frogs, 59 in the RPI per WarrenNolan.com and 55 per Boyd Nation of BoydsWorld.com, hopped over other bubble teams like BYU, Houston, Missouri, Texas State, UCF and UC Irvine.
What did TCU have on those teams? For one, the Frogs benefitted from a deep run in the Big 12 tourney. The deep run included three tourney wins and a huge boost in the RPI, which was in the low 70s a week ago. TCU’s sixth-place finish in the Big 12 standings, with a sub-.500 record, and 171st non-conference strength of schedule didn’t sink the Frogs.
We struggled with predicting what the committee would do with that last spot. We had BYU, a regular-season conference champ that dropped two straight in the league tourney, just ahead of Houston, UCF and Texas State, another regular-season champ. Stolen bids by Cincinnati in the American Conference and Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt appear to have doomed Houston, UCF and Texas State. The committee also included Missouri in with those three as the final four out, a tough pill to swallow as the Tigers had an RPI of 31 and lost their last four games, three by a single run and the other 2-0.
The other curve is unsatisfying: Five of the eight Regionals could present matchups of conference foes if the hosts take care of business. Recent years have featured one or two such potential matchups. This year, we could have UCLA/Oregon State; Texas Tech/Oklahoma State; Arkansas/Ole Miss; Georgia/LSU; and Georgia Tech/North Carolina.
Yes, we understand the committee seeded 1-16 and that sometimes you’re going to get those potential matchups. But it seems like the committee made a conscious decision to pit rivals against each other. Could Oregon State, with a 16-9 Q1 record and eight-best nonconference schedule, not been No. 15 (or higher) instead of 16 to set up a potential trip to Vanderbilt for the Supers? Could West Virginia not have been shifted from 15 to 16 with its 9-11 Q1 record?
It wouldn’t be difficult to move a team up or down a spot or two. Instead, we might get a matchup of Arkansas and Ole Miss in the Supers, two teams that already have played five times this season.
I, for one, don’t mind at all if one conference sends three, four, five or more teams to Omaha. I’m not a fan of these potential matchups, but remember, chances are fair that there could be an upset or two in the Regional round to prevent conference foes from meeting.
National Seeds
We had both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the Top 8 at Louisville’s expense. Tournament play clearly made an impact on the committee, so we were a little surprised the Cardinals got the nod over the Cowboys. Just a little surprised. So, no big deal, there. We were more surprised that Georgia Tech jumped to No. 3. We thought maybe they could jump to five or so to break up three straight SEC teams – in an effort to avoid SEC teams playing SEC teams in the Supers – but not up to three. A couple of wins over rival Georgia appears to have made an impact on the committee.
Regional Hosts
No real complaints here as we correctly predicted the 16 Regional hosts the committee would select. Ole Miss’ run in the SEC Tournament impressed us, and we felt its overall resume was stronger than Texas A&M, Miami and NC State. Oregon State is deserving of a host.
Inside The Brackets
Some random thoughts from inside the bracket.
- We smiled when Stony Brook was sent to Baton Rouge as the 4-seed. The Seawolves upset LSU in the 2012 Super Regionals to reach Omaha.
- Vanderbilt wasn’t done any favors as the No. 2 national seed. Ohio State is a tough No. 4 to go with McNeese and Indiana State as the 3 and 2, respectively.
- That Stanford Regional essentially has two No. 2 seeds, with UCSB, the real 2, and Fresno State, given a 3-seed. The Cardinal arguably drew the strongest No. 2 and 3 seeds, in addition to Sacramento State.
- Florida and Florida State… we’ve been writing all week that we thought Florida State would make it in coach Mike Martin’s last season. We also thought that if the committee took FSU, it had to take Florida as well since the Gators went 3-0 against the Seminoles. It’s not often that an ACC or SEC team makes the field with an RPI of 50. FSU was fortunate – its sixth-place finish in the regular season and a win over NC State in the ACC tourney appears to have saved the day.