Entering Selection Monday, we felt this season was among the most challenging in predicting what the NCAA Committee would do for its Field of 64 since we started this site in 2002.
Would it take North Carolina and its RPI of 18 (per WarrenNolan.com) among 10 – or even 11 – ACC schools? If so, would that keep Boston College (RPI 39), with a seemingly more impressive overall resume, on the outside looking in? And what would it mean for some of the Midwest or West Coast teams, whose RPI hovered between 45 and 55?
In the end, the committee’s selections went pretty much as we thought they would. We predicted 10 ACC teams, with Phil taking UNC over Boston College and me taking the Eagles over the Tar Heels. (Hey, we’ve been doing this site for a long time…it’s OK that we disagree every once in a while! But Phil, I told you so!)
The committee said the last three in were Southeastern Louisiana, which barely missed a year ago, Nebraska and South Alabama. The first three out? North Carolina, Oregon State and West Virginia.
So, who has a gripe?
I typically have argued that if teams don’t make their conference tourneys, they shouldn’t make the NCAA field. There are exceptions, but I thought there were better options, particularly Boston College. In addition to the RPI, North Carolina had a sweep of Oklahoma State and won two of three against a UCLA team that ended up below the typical Bruins squad. And it has plenty of other wins against NCAA teams like East Carolina, UNC Wilmington and South Carolina. But finishing 11th in the league and dropping six of its final eight series (including a sweep to Wake Forest) ended up being too much to overcome. For the second straight year, North Carolina was left out despite an RPI in the Top 30 in the land.
Boston College, meanwhile, had series wins over national seed Louisville, regional hosts Virginia and NC State and Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. The Eagles were justly rewarded. As for the Yellow Jackets, another team we thought was on the bubble, their series win against the Tar Heels and sweep of Coastal Carolina late may have saved them.
Oregon State missing the cut was surprising.
We really struggled separating Oregon State, Arizona State and Washington, all of the Pac 12. ASU (43) and OSU (45) led Washington (55) in the RPI race, but the Huskies were second in the league race. We originally had the Beavers out of our final projection but put them back in based on a 19-13 record against the Top 100 in RPI (per WarrenNolan.com). Throw in the fact that OSU swept peer ASU and took two of three against Washington, went 18-13 away from home – 31 games away from home – and only four games against sub-200 teams, and liked its chances. The nonconference strength of schedule of 209 appears to have hurt, but an overall SOS of 101 – compared to Nebraska (109), Minnesota (111), South Alabama (102) and Southeastern Louisiana (107) – put the Beavers right in line with other at-large teams that got in.
One of the big reasons we put Oregon State back in (and took Nebraska out) in our projections was the record against the Top 100. OSU at 19-13 was far ahead of the Cornhuskers (11-12), Golden Gophers (13-19) and Long Beach State (12-12).
We thought the Beavers belonged.
Other teams who may have thought they should have been invited include Michigan (38), Creighton (46), Northwestern State (47), BYU (53), Houston (58) and West Virginia (63) – the Mountaineers were listed as one of the first three out after a huge run in the Big 12 tourney. Each of these teams could make a case but also had flaws, whether it was finishing down the line in their league, bad conference tourney performances or a lack of Top 50 or Top 100 wins.
Other thoughts on the bracket…
- One of the first things that stood out was the potential Super Regional matchups: Florida and Florida State; Louisville and Nashville; Texas A&M and TCU; Clemson and South Carolina. Stop us if you’ve heard that before. A couple familiar matchups always are inevitable, but we would have liked to seen more diversity. Set Starkville up with Tallahassee, especially since no SEC or ACC teams might face each other if either of the Regional hosts faltered. Set Coral Gables up with Nashville. Set Louisville up with Lafayette. Instead, the committee gave us familiar matchups and also eschewed some of the RPI metrics it seemed to champion: Louisville, the No. 2 national seed, potentially gets Vanderbilt, the No. 9 RPI in the country rather than say the No. 15 or 16 RPI, Louisiana-Lafayette and TCU, respectively; Florida, the No. 1 national seed, could draw Florida State with the No. 13 RPI. Continuing that thought – even though it’s a new matchup – Miami, the No. 3 national seed could draw Ole Miss, the No. 5 RPI and likely a near-miss to LSU for a national seed.
- Seedings, etc.
- Texas Tech deserved to be a national seed, though it was a little surprising to see the Red Raiders in the 5-spot. We thought Mississippi State or Clemson would be as high as five, with Texas Tech sitting in the 8-spot and likely matching up against Ole Miss as the “first team out” of the national-seed spots.
- Minnesota as a 2-seed raised our eyebrows given its RPI of 50. We’ll admit, there seemed to be more bona fide 3-seeds than true 2-seeds, particularly given the nature in the ACC where you had teams like Duke and Wake Forest in the 20s in RPI and landing 3-seeds. It turns out to be a pretty favorable draw for Texas A&M.
- Cal State Fullerton (42) and Arizona State (43) drew 2-seeds over the likes of Gonzaga (30) and Louisiana Tech (31). Arizona State and Gonzaga were paired together in the Fort Worth Regional, and Fullerton and Louisiana Tech were paired together in the Starkville Regional, which make for challenging roads for the host schools.
- We were glad to see Bryant get a deserved No. 2 seed and thought the committee got it right with Southeastern Louisiana, which barely missed the field last year with a nonconference SOS of 160 – this year it was 46, helping boost the Lions’ overall SOS 60 spots from last year.
- Regional hosts pretty much went as expected. Like many, we thought the NCAA would select Arizona to host a Regional as a 2-seed, with Vanderbilt being a possible No. 1 seed in that bracket. We also thought Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss had good shots at hosting if the committee wanted to break up the ACC/SEC Similar to Radford and Charleston last year, it didn’t happen. As such, 13 of 16 Regional sites are at ACC or SEC schools.