May 14, 2015

Field of Dreamers: Let the Maydness Ensue!

By Sean Ryan. CBI Co-Founder

sean@collegebaseballinsider.com @collbaseball

Maydness (May Madness) continues, and this is the last regular-season weekend before most conferences hold their tourneys next week. We’ll be taking a closer look at the hosts and seeds over the weekend, but here’s who we think will be in the field.

America East (1) – Stony Brook

Stony Brook (RPI 76) remains our pick and will finish its regular season at last-place Binghamton this weekend.

American (3) – In: Houston, USF, East Carolina; Out: Memphis, Tulane, UConn, UCF

Still one of the best races in the nation, Houston holds a one-game lead over ECU and all the teams above are within four games of first. Memphis has fallen out, as its RPI has gone from 42 to 63 in the past two weeks. The Pirates (RPI 38) are in for now, while Tulane (52), UConn (53) and UCF (55) fall just short. Houston (15) is looking to host a Regional.

ACC (8) – In: Miami, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Notre Dame, NC State; Out: Duke, Virginia Tech, Clemson

We don’t expect it to stay at eight, but we’ll go there this week. The debate will be with Georgia Tech (30), Virginia (31), Notre Dame (32) and NC State (37). The Cavaliers have a big finishing series with North Carolina, and at 12-15 in the league, need wins. On the flip side, Virginia is 13-10 against the Top 50 per WarrenNolan.com, the only one of the three with a winning record. The Jackets face Miami, the Wolfpack meet Louisville and the Irish entertain Boston College. The Hurricanes, Seminoles and Cardinals likely will host, with two of them holding national seeds.

A-Sun (1) – UNF

The Ospreys (48) have jumped 14 spots in the RPI the past two weeks and may be an at-large squad if they don’t win the league tourney.

A-10 (1) – Saint Louis

Havoc reigns in the A-10, where it’s tight at the top. Saint Louis, Richmond and Rhode Island are tied for first and it seems everyone else is in the mix. We’ll give the Billikens the bid this week. But URI and UR, as well as Davidson and Fordham, can make a run.

Big East (1) – St. John’s

Two weeks ago, we said St. John’s and Creighton, which split their two games, would battle. The Red Storm has won 13 of 14 and is on a roll. Both teams will still battle, but we’ll go with St. John’s.

Big South (3) – In: Radford, Coastal Carolina, Liberty

Radford and Coastal Carolina are in terrific shape, and Liberty has played its way into the field by improving its RPI from 48 to 35 in the past two weeks.

Big Ten (5) – In: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland; Out: Nebraska, Michigan, Indiana

It’s a big year for the Big Ten. Illinois has moved into national-seed territory. Iowa (21) and Ohio State (25) appear safe. And Michigan State (41), tied for third in the league standings, has moved into our field. We’re keeping Maryland (46) in this week, but Indiana (49) is making a push. Nebraska (44) is hurt by its eight-place standing. We easily can see this turning into four teams after upsets in conference tourneys around the country.

Big 12 (2) – In: TCU, Oklahoma State; Out: Oklahoma, Texas Tech

TCU is still looking like a national seed, and Oklahoma State could be hosting. The rest the league appears to be watching from home. Odd year in the Big 12.

Big West (3) – In: UCSB, Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine; Out: Long Beach State

The Gauchos remain a sure thing, the Titans (33) look probable and the Eaters (51) appear possible. We’ll go with all three this week.

Colonial (2) – In: College of Charleston, UNCW

The Cougars (16) have played their way into Regional-host contention. A sweep of the Seahawks (42) was impressive; UNCW needs to finish strong to stay off the bubble.

Conference USA (2) – In: FAU, Rice; Out: Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee, UTSA, UAB

Rice (22) leads the standings, and FAU (14) leads the RPI race. Middle Tennessee (63) and Southern Miss (58) are hanging near the top of the standings and are still in contention for an at-large. UTSA (68) and UAB (73) need some help.

Horizon (1) – Wright State

Wright State and UIC continue to battle at the top and have split the season series. We’ll continue to go with the Raiders.

Ivy (1) – Columbia

We called Columbia a couple of weeks ago in a tight race with Penn and Dartmouth, and the Lions picked up their third straight Ivy title and automatic berth by slipping past the Big Green 10-7 in the rubber game of their title series.

MAAC (1) – Rider

It’s always tight in the MAAC, and this year is no different. Rider and Canisius are trying to hold off Quinnipiac and Monmouth. Buckle up!

MAC (1) – Kent State

Two weeks ago, Central Michigan was the team to beat; CMU is still looking good, but here comes Kent State, winners of six straight. And Ohio, and others, are hanging around. The MAC is always crazy. The Flashes get our vote this week.

MEAC (1) – Florida A&M

Norfolk State was our pick two weeks ago, but the Spartans were upended early in this week’s MEAC tourney and will have to come out of the losers’ bracket. FAMU is in the driver’s seat. We still think the Spartans have a shot, but they’ll need five straight wins – including two over FAMU – out of the losers’ bracket.

MVC (3) – Dallas Baptist, Missouri State, Bradley

Dallas Baptist will host, and with the nation’s top RPI, could land a national seed. And Missouri State (9) looks like a host as well. Bradley (23) is sitting pretty for an at-large bid. Evansville, sitting at 56 two weeks ago, have fallen off the grid with an RPI of 90.

Mountain West (1) – Nevada

Nevada (34) has solidified its place in the tourney whether it wins the conference tourney or not. Fresno State, San Diego State and New Mexico will make the tourney in Reno fun.

NEC (1) – Bryant

We had Bryant two weeks ago, and the Bulldogs have moved into first place with six straight wins. It’s only fitting the two teams meet this weekend (Bryant won the first of four games Thursday).

OVC (1) – Southeast Missouri

SEMO’s lead over Morehead State has shrunk to two games as it continues to be the favorite. The tourney may come down to these two teams; we’ll stick with SEMO for now.

Pac-12 (5) – In: UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Oregon State, Cal; Out: Oregon, Washington

UCLA will be a national seed, and USC will make its first tourney since 2005. Cal (39) and Oregon State (40) are in good shape and will be tough draws for some Regional host.

Patriot (1) – Navy

Second-seeded Lehigh will face top-seeded Navy for the Patriot League championship this weekend. The teams split their four games this season. We’ll stick with our pick of Navy.

SEC (8) – In: LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss; Out: South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama

LSU and Florida are likely national seeds. Texas A&M or Vandy could make it three national seeds. From there, things get a little interesting. Auburn (24), Ole Miss (28), Arkansas (43) and Missouri (52) make our field for now. Kentucky (57), whose RPI has fallen from 33 the past two weeks, is out for now, and Alabama (47), at 11-17 in the league, and South Carolina (56) are as well. But watch out: the Gamecocks’ picked up a huge win over LSU Thursday night and are trying to play their way back into the field…don’t count them out.

Southern (1) – Mercer

Mercer has clinched at least a share of the SoCon, and we’ll stick with the Bears as our pick. Wofford and Samford will keep things interesting in the league tourney.

Southland (1) – Southeast Louisiana

Southeastern Louisiana holds the lead over Northwestern State, Nicholls and McNeese State. With an RPI of 46, the Lions would find themselves on the bubble if they don’t win the league tourney.

SWAC (1) – Alabama State

Our pick from two weeks ago was Alabama State, which fell Thursday in extra innings to Southern in the SWAC tourney. We’ll stick with ASU, although Southern is in a great spot, and Texas Southern is the West’s best.

Summit (1) – Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts remains the team to beat and is still our pick to represent the Summit. South Dakota State sits in second, six games back.

Sun Belt (1) – Louisiana

Louisiana has lost two straight series and seen its RPI fall from 37 to 61 the past two weeks. South Alabama has taken over first, and Troy sits in second. The Cajuns are third and are followed by Georgia State. We said we wouldn’t be surprised if some team other than the Cajuns emerged as the league champ. We’ll keep them as our pick…for now.

West Coast (1) – San Diego

It will be a one-bid league, and San Diego has claimed the regular-season title. It was a rough start to the season, but USD is the team to beat.

WAC (1) – Bakersfield

Grand Canyon (ineligible for NCAA bid as part of its transition to D-I) still leads, and we’ll stick with Bakersfield as our pick to represent the WAC, edging out Seattle.