May 1, 2015

Field of Dreamers: The Maydness is Here!

By Sean Ryan. CBI Co-Founder

sean@collegebaseballinsider.com @collbaseball

Maydness is back.

May Madness, or what we’ve been referring to Maydness for years, is in full swing with four weekends of play before Selection Monday. Today, we unveil our first projections for the Field of 64 for the year, and we’ll update this as we get closer with seeds and Regional sites.

Needless to say, it’s been an interesting year. In February, how many would have predicted there would be more teams from the Big Ten and Missouri Valley Conference in the field than the Big 12? And who would have guessed big names like Texas, South Carolina and Oregon, each of which was a Top 15 pick in various polls in the preseason, would be on the outside looking in?

A lot can – and will change – over the next few weeks. Here’s where we stand as of May 1.

Bring on the Maydness.

America East (1) – Stony Brook

Stony Brook (24-12) is four games up on UMass-Lowell (the two teams play their second conference series next weekend) and is our pick. Of special note, the Seawolves have won 22 of 27 and boast an RPI of 61, probably a little shy of being safe for an at-large bid if they don’t win the league tourney.

American (4) – In: Memphis, USF, Houston and East Carolina; Out: Tulane, UConn, UCF

One of the more interesting battles, six teams are within two games of first place, with Memphis, USF, Houston and East Carolina all tied at the top at 9-6. The Cougars appear solid with an RPI of 23, and the Bulls sit at 26. We give Memphis (RPI 42) the third spot by virtue of taking two of three against ECU, USF and Houston and will include the Pirates (43). Tulane (38) is close but has dropped two of three to Houston and ECU. As are UConn (45) and UCF (57).

ACC (7) – In: Miami, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Notre Dame; Out: NC State, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson, Virginia Tech

The Hurricanes, Seminoles and Cardinals are near-locks to host and a pair could be national seeds. The Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets are good for now. But it gets interesting from here. The Cavaliers (39) and Fighting Irish (44) don’t have much margin for error. The Wolfpack (54) had dropped three straight weekend series before taking two of three from Virginia – the last weekend against Louisville will be huge. Duke, Wake, Clemson and Virginia Tech remain in the conversation but need league wins, especially the Blue Devils, who are just 7-16 in the league.

A-Sun (1) – UNF

The Ospreys (62) are tied with Stetson for first in the league heading into this weekend’s showdown. We’ll give them the nod in what we expect to be a one-bid league. Keep an eye on Kennesaw State, which went on a run late last year.

A-10 (1) – Rhode Island

Don’t blink because with 10 teams within three games of first place, you’re sure to miss a change in the standings. Rhody took back-to-back trips to Richmond and took two of three from both Richmond and VCU and gets our vote. The Spiders and Rams, along with Saint Louis, George Washington and Davidson will make this fun till the end.

Big East (1) – Creighton

Creighton and St. John’s, which split their two games, are at the top and should stay there. The Bluejays (63) have a shot at an at-large, but expect them and the Red Storm to battle.

Big South (2) – In: Radford, Coastal Carolina; Out: Liberty

Radford has been on an incredible run, seeing its RPI rise to 13, and Coastal Carolina sits at 24. They’re in a three-way tie with Liberty atop the league standings, although the Highlanders have series wins over each of them. The Flames (48) have a good shot to move up with a series against the Chants next weekend.

Big Ten (4) – In: Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Maryland; Out: Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana

It’s a big year for the Big Ten. All the teams listed above are in the Top 75 in the nation in RPI. And we expect the conference to get rewarded with a bid bounty. Nebraska is the one to watch – you wouldn’t expect a team with an RPI of 12 to be on the bubble, but the Huskers are 6-9 and way back in the league race. Per WarrenNolan.com, they’re 2-11 against the RPI Top 50; on the flip side, they’re 14-1 against 51-100. It’s not out of the question for the league to get five bids. Buckle up.

Big 12 (2) – In: TCU, Oklahoma State; Out: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State

It’s been a rough year in the Big 12. Who would have thought there would be only two solid picks at this point of the year? TCU is looking for a national seed, and Oklahoma State is pushing to host. From there, the others need wins and a boost in RPI, where the Wildcats (78) are next in line.

Big West (4) – In: UCSB, Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine, Long Beach State

The Gauchos are the only sure thing at this point, with the Titans (35), Eaters (47) and Dirtbags (53) in for now but watching scoreboards across the nation. Fullerton and Long Beach play the final weekend in what could be an elimination series since the Big West doesn’t have a league tourney.

Colonial (2) – In: College of Charleston, UNCW

The Cougars (27) are following up last year’s Super Regional season with another great run and lead the Seahawks (36) by a game. Both are in good shape as of now even if they don’t win the league tourney. Elon and William & Mary will make things tough in the tourney.

Conference USA (2) – In: FAU, Rice; Out: Southern Miss, UTSA, Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee (66) is tied for first place with FAU (10), which is having a special year and in the mix to host a Regional. Rice (34) is solid for now with Southern Miss (59) and UTSA (60) needing big finishes.

Horizon (1) – Wright State

UIC and Wright State are battling at the top, and the Flames took two of three from the Raiders earlier in the season. They square off again this weekend at Wright State. Don’t lose sight of Valpo or pitching-rich Milwaukee.

Ivy (1) – Columbia

Penn and Columbia (74) will meet in a one-game playoff Saturday for the right to play a three-game series for the Ivy title against Dartmouth. All three teams finished 16-4 in the two-division league. Penn split four tight games with Columbia and split two one-runners vs. Dartmouth. And Columbia split two close games with Dartmouth. We’ll pull the Lions out of our hat.

MAAC (1) – Rider

It’s always tight in the MAAC, and this year is no different. Rider has won six straight and is 9-0 at home, with two of its final three series at home. Expect a wild finish, with Canisius and Siena right in the mix, along with Quinnipiac and Monmouth.

MAC (1) – Central Michigan

Central Michigan is the team to beat, but the MAC, like the MAAC, is always unpredictable. Kent State is always in the mix, and Ohio (18-8 on the road) and Ball State have some big wins.

MEAC (1) – Norfolk State

Norfolk State has been knocking on the door for the past few years, and this may be the year for the Spartans, even though they dropped two one-runners to second-place UMES. You always have to watch out for Bethune-Cookman, and FAMU and North Carolina Central will make things tough.

MVC (3) – In: Dallas Baptist, Missouri State, Bradley; Out – Evansville

What a year for the MVC, with three teams in the top 20 of the RPI (DBU at 1, Missouri State at 9 and Bradley at 20). Evansville is sitting on the bubble at 56 and has work to do – the Aces are 2-7 against those top three and need to pile up wins and hope for the chance to play the Big Three again in the conference tourney.

Mountain West (1) – In: Nevada; Out: San Diego State, Fresno State, New Mexico

Nevada (58) has had an incredible season and is headed to Omaha… next weekend to play Creighton. But the Pack can’t shake San Diego State (70). Expect a lot of offense when the conference tourney commences.

NEC (1) – Bryant

Wagner, winners of five straight, leads a tight conference race, and Bryant sits in second. The teams will square off for four games the final weekend of the season. Sacred Heart could make a little noise.

OVC (1) – Southeast Missouri

SEMO is four games up in SIU-Edwardsville and is the favorite heading down the stretch. Morehead State, which has the highest RPI in the league, and Austin Peay are capable of making a run.

Pac-12 (5) – In: UCLA, USC, Arizona State, Oregon State, Cal; Out: Washington, Oregon, Arizona

UCLA is primed to be a national seed, and rival USC appears a lock to be headed to the tournament for the first time since 2005. Cal, with an RPI of 50, is on our bubble and gets in this week.

Patriot (1) – Navy

Navy won the regular-season title for the first time since 2011, the last time it won the tourney as well. The Mids will face Lafayette in a best-of-three series, while Holy Cross and Lehigh meet next weekend, with the winners meeting the following weekend.

SEC (9) – In: LSU, Texas A&M, Florida, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Ole Miss; Out: Alabama, South Carolina

On one hand, nine bids could be generous. On the other, you can make a case for more. LSU and A&M are looking like national seeds, and Florida looks like a Regional host. After Vanderbilt, Auburn (17), Kentucky (33), Arkansas (46) and Missouri (57) are trying to fend off Ole Miss (34) and Alabama (49). South Carolina is out for now at 71, but has Auburn, A&M and LSU left to make a dent. The Tide is hurt by a 5-15 mark against the Top 50 but is still in the mix.

Southern (1) – Mercer

Samford and Mercer are atop the league standings and will meet on the final weekend of the year. Both teams hit well and are shaky on the mound, with Samford’s team ERA sitting at 5.01. We’ll go with the Bears this week.

Southland (1) – Southeastern Louisiana

Southeastern Louisiana is looking pretty solid with an RPI of 41 and a three-game lead in the loss column in the league. But it’s a solid league again, with Northwestern State, Central Arkansas, Sam Houston State and McNeese State in contention.

SWAC (1) – Alabama State

Alabama State heads a group bunched at the top of the two-division conference, with Alabama A&M and Jackson State challenging in the Eastern Division. Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern are fighting in the Western.

Summit (1) – Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts holds a three-game lead over South Dakota State, and IPFW has won eight straight and sits in third. ORU is our pick to represent the Summit.

Sun Belt (1) – Louisiana

We wouldn’t be surprised if some team other than Louisiana emerges as the league champ, but the Cajuns (37) are the lone squad that can get an at-large. Georgia State, Georgia Southern, South Alabama and Troy will make things tough for Louisiana.

West Coast (1) – San Diego

After a rough start to the season, San Diego has righted the ship to share the league lead with Pepperdine and San Francisco. With no team looking like an at-large qualifier, it’s wide open as to who takes the title. We’ll lean on USD this week. Loyola Marymount and BYU are hanging around as well.

WAC (1) – Bakersfield

Grand Canyon, Seattle and Bakersfield are mixing it up at the top. We like the Lopes, but they are not yet eligible for the NCAA Tournament. We'll lean now toward the Roadrunners.