May 2, 2013

Field of Dreamers

Maydness is Upon Us

By Sean Ryan & Phil Stanton

sean@collegebaseballinsider.com @collbaseball

phil@collegebaseballinsider.com @roadtoomaha

Maydness has arrived.

We have turned the calendar and May Madness, or Maydness, begins this weekend. Dartmouth plays at Columbia in the Ivy League Championship Series to determine the first bid for the 2013 NCAA Tournament.

Some conferences have clearer pictures for at-large bids, but many remain cloudy. This will continue to stir interest over the next few weeks.

Without further ado, here’s our latest look the Field of 64 (happy teams in bold). Records and RPIs (courtesy of www.BoydsWorld.com) are through games of May 1.

America East (1) – Maine (14-6, 26-17) lost two of three at home to Hartford (11-10, 14-27) this past weekend. Albany (13-8, 20-17-1) swept UMBC (5-16, 11-24) and pulled with 1.5 games of first. The Great Danes host the Black Bears in a huge series this weekend. We’re sticking with Maine for now, but that could change.

ACC (8) – Eight teams still reside in the Top 22 in RPI and we expect this group to be playing in June. North Carolina (19-3, 41-4, RPI 1), Virginia (17-7, 39-8, RPI 3), Florida State (16-8, 35-9, RPI 6), and NC State (15-8, 34-11, RPI 8) remain in the picture as national seeds. The Tar Heels and Wolfpack split two games this past weekend, with the finale washed out. Virginia Tech (11-13, 28-18, RPI 12) won its series with the Cavaliers and is solidly in the field with Clemson (15-9, 30-14, RPI 17), Miami (11-13, 29-18, RPI 18), Clemson (13-8, 28-13, RPI 12) and Georgia Tech (12-12, 28-16, RPI 22). Most teams have non-conference series this weekend.

Atlantic Sun (2) – North Florida (14-4, 33-12, RPI 42) maintained sole possession of the top spot with its first-ever sweep of Jacksonville (7-11, 14-29). Mercer (15-6, 36-12, RPI 23) stayed within striking distance with a sweep at USC Upstate (8-13, 24-22). The Ospreys and Bears remain in good shape for post-season play. UNF heads to Stetson (10-8, 21-23), while Mercer takes the weekend off.

Atlantic 10 (1) – Saint Louis (12-3, 30-13) lost its first conference series this past weekend at Richmond (9-6, 26-16). La Salle (13-5, 20-21) closed the gap by winning its home series with VCU (6-9, 21-22). There is a logjam of four teams tied for third, two games back: Butler (10-5, 23-18), Charlotte (10-5, 26-19), Rhode Island (10-5, 25-20) and Xavier (10-5, 23-19). We still think the Billikens prevail in a tight race and conference tourney. SLU heads to VCU this weekend, while Butler travels to Charlotte.

Big East (3) – There were nothing but sweeps this past weekend. USF (13-2, 29-15, RPI 71) took three from St. John’s (7-11, 20-26) to keep its hold on first. Pittsburgh (12-3, 33-10, RPI 40) swept Cincinnati (4-14, 18-25) to remain a game back in second. Louisville (11-4, 34-10, RPI 21) stayed in third with three wins over Georgetown (5-10, 24-18). Seton Hall (10-5, 27-16, RPI 44) swept at Villanova (2-13, 11-33) to stay three games back and stay in the at-large hunt. Notre Dame (7-8, 27-16, RPI 24) got a much-needed sweep over Connecticut (8-10, 26-19) to climb into sixth, but needs a strong finish to move up in the league standings. The Fighting Irish can help itself even more this weekend as it hosts the first-place Bulls.

Big South (2) – The division leaders continue to rule. Coastal Carolina (13-5, 27-17, RPI 46) took two of three from second-place Presbyterian (9-9, 23-22) to lengthen its lead to four in the South. Campbell (14-4, 37-8, RPI 39) was idle this past weekend as second-place Liberty (11-7, 26-20, RPI 78) swept its series at VMI (5-13, 19-30) to move with three of the Camels. Campbell heads to High Point (9-6, 22-22) this weekend and entertains the Flames next week.

Big Ten (2) – Oh, those Legends and Leaders! Indiana (11-4, 34-8, RPI 14) swept Michigan (8-7, 22-20) to move into a second-place tie with Nebraska (11-4, 20-23, RPI 50). Both are percentage points behind Minnesota (9-3, 26-14), which won two of three at Iowa (4-11, 16-23). The Huskers entertain the Hoosiers in a huge series this weekend. Ohio State (12-6, 28-13, RPI 41) swept Penn State (2-13, 11-28) to remain close. Michigan State (7-5, 24-13, RPI 37) took two of three from Purdue (5-12, 13-27) and has a key series at home with Illinois (8-7, 27-13, RPI 35) this weekend. The Big Ten could earn a third bid, but we’ll stay with two for now.

Big 12 (4) – Is it parity or mediocrity? Six of the nine teams are within 2.5 games of first. RPIs aren’t stellar, but should be good enough to garner some at-large bids. Baylor (11-6, 25-20, RPI 45) swept Texas (5-13, 23-20, RPI 60) to move within percentage points of first behind Oklahoma (10-5, 33-12, RPI 43), which took two of three from Texas Tech (6-12, 21-24, RPI 86). Kansas State (9-6, 32-14, RPI 27) went 2-1 against TCU (8-10, 21-23) to sit in third with West Virginia (9-6, 27-19, RPI 76), which captured three one-runs win over Kansas (9-9, 26-18, RPI 58). Oklahoma State (7-7, 32-11, RPI 52) won five non-conference contests last week and improved its RPI enough to be included in the field this week. We’ll put four in this week, but that may change quite a bit over the next few weeks. The Sooners visit the Mountaineers this weekend, with the Bears traveling to the Jayhawks.

Big West (2) – Cal State Fullerton (12-3, 36-7, RPI 10) had its RPI drop a bit with a loss at Hawaii (4-11, 9-29). The Titans are still in consideration for a national seed. Cal Poly (8-7, 28-13, RPI 33) dropped two of three at Long Beach State (9-6, 21-21, RPI 96) and fell into a tie for fifth. We still think two will come from the Big West, assuming the Mustangs climb back into the top three. Fullerton hosts the Dirtbags this weekend, while Cal Poly entertains UC Riverside (7-8, 18-22).

Colonial (1) – UNC Wilmington (13-4, 32-13, RPI 26) lost its series at Towson (11-7, 21-22), but the RPI stayed solid after a win at No. 1 North Carolina earlier in the week. William and Mary (11-7, 28-17, RPI 55) had its RPI take a huge tumble with a loss to George Mason (6-18, 16-31). The league could still get two bids, but someone besides the Seahawks is going to have to win the tourney. UNCW hosts Northeastern (8-10, 24-18) this weekend, while the Tribe entertains Hofstra (8-10, 23-21).

Conference USA (2) – Maybe we should call it Confusion USA. Third-place Rice (9-6, 28-14, RPI 36) had its RPI improve seven spots without playing a game. We expect the Owls to finish in the top two and pick up an at-large bid if they don’t win the conference tourney. We think at least two teams will come from C-USA, but who will that second one be? We’ll go with first-place Southern Miss (13-5, 24-19, RPI 84) for now. The Golden Eagles swept a three-game set from UAB (3-12, 17-29) to keep their hold on the top spot. UCF (11-7, 25-19) took three from reeling Houston (7-8, 28-17, RPI 62) to move into second. Southern Miss plays at East Carolina (8-7, 24-21, RPI 72) this weekend, while Rice visits UAB.

Great West (0) – Texas-Pan American (13-2, 23-19) took three from NJIT (6-9, 14-25) to increase its lead, now 2.5 games ahead of Utah Valley (9-3, 18-22). It should be a good conference tourney, but no at-large bids from the Great West.

Horizon (1) – Milwaukee (11-4, 19-16) took three from UIC (8-10, 20-21) to strengthen its lead. Valparaiso (7-8, 20-23) swept Wright State (6-9, 18-21) to move into a tie for second. The Crusaders host the Panthers this weekend in a key conference set.

Ivy (1) – Dartmouth (15-5, 32-7) swept Harvard (7-13, 10-31) to win the Red Rolfe Division for the sixth straight year. Columbia (16-4, 24-19) swept Penn (7-13, 22-21) to take the Lou Gehrig Division and earn home field advantage for this week’s championship series. We expect it to go three games, with the Big Green prevailing on Sunday to earn the first bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Metro Atlantic (1) – Rider (11-4, 26-17) was impressive in its series win at Siena (10-5, 19-24) to take sole possession of first. Marist (12-6, 22-17-1) dropped two of three to hard-charging Canisius (9-6, 32-11, RPI 87) to keep things tight near the top. Siena hosts Canisius this weekend, while Rider heads to Niagara (9-9, 15-28) and Marist visits Saint Peter’s (7-8, 14-26).

Mid-American (1) – Kent State (12-6, 24-20) swept Bowling Green (8-10, 14-23) to pull within 1.5 of first-place Buffalo (13-4, 23-17) in the East. Northern Illinois (13-5, 18-24) took two of three from Miami (10-8, 20-23) to extend its lead to four in the West. The Golden Flashes are playing better and should roll into the conference tourney. KSU hosts Central Michigan (8-10, 19-23) this weekend, while Buffalo entertains Ohio (6-12, 11-31) and NIU goes to Toledo (8-10, 17-25).

Mid-Eastern (1) – Bethune-Cookman (15-6, 28-19, RPI 79) was idle last weekend and fell a half-game behind Savannah State (15-5, 27-18) in the Southern Division after the Tigers swept North Carolina A&T (7-13, 14-32). The Wildcats travel to SSU this weekend to decide the division title. Delaware State (18-3, 29-13) has easily clinched the North. Until someone knocks them off, we’re sticking with B-CU to take another title.

Missouri Valley (1) – Missouri State (11-4, 27-13, RPI 77) took two of three at Evansville (7-9, 16-29) to remain in a tie for first with Wichita State (11-4, 26-21), which won its series at Southern Illinois (3-12, 20-24). The Bears host the Shockers this weekend in a battle for first. Creighton (8-4, 24-11, RPI 70) plays at Illinois State (9-3, 28-16) in another key series.

Mountain West (1) – New Mexico (17-4, 27-17, RPI 48) had one of the most impressive performances this past weekend by sweeping second-place UNLV (11-10, 28-16, RPI 81) to put a stranglehold on first. San Diego State (12-9, 22-22, RPI 91) won its series with Fresno State (9-12, 15-27) to move past the Rebels into second. UNM hosts Air Force (5-16, 13-30) this weekend, while the Aztecs play at Nevada (9-12, 22-22) and UNLV hosts FSU.

Northeast (1) – Bryant (16-4, 29-14-1) won its series with LIU Brooklyn (11-9, 15-26) to stay one game ahead of Monmouth (17-7, 27-18) after the Hawks won three of four against Sacred Heart (15-9, 20-21). The Bulldogs play at Central Connecticut (10-10, 21-19) this weekend, while Monmouth sits idle.

Ohio Valley (2) – Jacksonville State (17-4, 25-19) won three at Southeast Missouri (12-12, 21-25) to stay percentage points ahead of Tennessee Tech (19-5, 32-12) after the Golden Eagles swept Murray State (6-15, 17-27). Austin Peay (13-7, 32-13, RPI 29) took two of three at Eastern Kentucky (11-10, 15-26) to stay in fourth. JSU hosts Belmont (16-5, 30-12) in the top series of the weekend. The Govs entertain Morehead State (9-12, 15-31).

Pac-12 (5) – Oregon State (14-4, 34-8, RPI 5) and Oregon (16-5, 34-10, RPI 7) both had sweeps to stay in strong position to be national seeds. The Beavers had their first-ever three-game sweep of USC (8-13, 16-27), while the Ducks took three from Stanford (9-9, 28-15, RPI 95). Arizona State (11-7, 29-12-1, RPI 13) and UCLA (11-7, 28-13, RPI 16) remain solid at-large squads. We’re giving the fifth spot now to Arizona (9-9, 28-15, RPI 49) after the Cardinal dropped three. OSU hosts California (9-12, 21-23) this weekend, while Oregon visits Washington State (7-11, 20-20), ASU entertains Stanford, UCLA welcomes Utah and Arizona hosts Washington.

Patriot (1) – Conference play is complete and we await the best-of-three semifinal series next weekend. Holy Cross (15-5, 25-22) won its first regular-season title and will host No. 4 Bucknell (10-10, 16-31), while second-seeded Navy (13-7, 28-20) welcomes No. 3 Army (11-9, 21-21). We think the Crusaders will take advantage of home field and make its first NCAA appearance since 1978.

Southeastern (9) – We’re taking one of the at-large bids away from the SEC this week. Vanderbilt (19-2, 39-6, RPI 2) and LSU (16-5, 40-6, RPI 4) are in great position to be national seeds. South Carolina (13-8, 33-12, RPI 9), Mississippi State (10-11, 33-13, RPI 11), Florida (12-9, 25-20, RPI 19) and Ole Miss (11-10, 31-14, RPI 20) are in the picture to host regionals. Kentucky (9-12, 26-17, RPI 28), Alabama (11-9, 27-18, RPI 31) and Arkansas (13-7, 30-15, RPI 47) are solidly in. Auburn (7-14, 25-18, RPI 59) lost two of three at Missouri (7-14, 15-25) to fall to last place in the West and drop 26 spots in the RPI. Vanderbilt plays at South Carolina, Florida heads to LSU, Arkansas visits Kentucky and Alabama goes to Mississippi State in the top weekend series.

Southern (1) – Western Carolina (18-6, 30-17, RPI 68) swept at UNC Greensboro (6-15, 19-26) to lengthen its lead. The Citadel (14-7, 27-18, RPI 54) took two of three at Furman (10-14, 23-19) to stay in second ahead of Elon (15-9, 23-24, RPI 82) after the Phoenix dropped two of three at Georgia Southern (12-12, 23-21). The Citadel hosts Davidson (8-16, 13-29) this weekend, while Elon plays at Appalachian State (11-11, 24-17).

Southland (2) – The standings remain tight, with seven teams still within two games of first. Lamar (12-6, 33-11, RPI 51) swept a three-game set from previous front-runner Stephen F. Austin (10-8, 23-22) to move into a tie at the top with Sam Houston State (12-6, 28-17, RPI 67) after the Bearkats took three at Northwestern State (2-16, 12-33). Southeastern Louisiana (11-7, 28-17, RPI 83) sits in second, while SFA, Central Arkansas (10-8, 31-11, RPI 32), Oral Roberts (10-8, 15-26) and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (10-8, 25-20) are all tied for third. ORU heads to Lamar this weekend, while SHSU hosts Nicholls (6-12, 23-22), SLU plays at UCA in the top series.

Southwestern (1) – Jackson State (19-5, 26-18) has clinched the best conference record as well as the top spot in the East. Southern (14-10, 19-19) holds a one-game lead in the West over Arkansas Pine Bluff (10-8, 18-26) heading into this final weekend of conference play. Southern faces JSU, while UAPB plays at Prairie View A&M (9-9, 20-21).

Summit (1) – Omaha (10-2, 16-18) maintains its three-game lead over South Dakota State (7-5, 21-14). We still think the Jackrabbits are the best team and will eventually take the title. SDSU plays at Western Illinois (4-8, 13-26) this weekend, while Omaha visits IPFW (6-10, 18-21).

Sun Belt (4) – What a terrific race. South Alabama (15-6, 34-12, RPI 15) swept a three-game set at ULM (5-16, 16-29) to remain in first. Troy (13-8, 32-12, RPI 34) took two of three at Florida Atlantic (12-9, 27-17, RPI 38) to take sole possession of second. FAU and Louisiana-Lafayette (12-9, 31-15, RPI 25) are tied for third. We think all four are worthy of NCAA bids. USA hosts Middle Tennessee (8-13, 25-22, RPI 56) this weekend, while Troy entertains FIU (11-10, 23-19), ULL welcomes Arkansas State and FAU hosts UALR (8-13, 22-22).

West Coast (1) – Gonzaga (15-6, 28-14-1, RPI 97) took two of three from BYU (8-7, 22-17, RPI 65) to extend its lead. San Francisco (11-8, 26-19, RPI 74) went 2-1 at San Diego (10-8, 26-19, RPI 57) to take over second place. Pepperdine (9-6, 22-17, RPI 98) was idle and settled into third. The Bulldogs head to Santa Clara (0-18, 10-32) this weekend, while the Dons host the Waves.

Western Athletic (1) – We have another tight conference race, as six teams are within three games of first. CSU Bakersfield (12-6, 29-17, RPI 88) lost two of three at Texas State (11-7, 21-23) to fall into a first-place tie with UT Arlington (12-6, 24-21) after the Mavericks went 2-1 at New Mexico State (9-9, 24-21). The Roadrunners head to Louisiana Tech (3-15, 15-30) this weekend, while UTA hosts Dallas Baptist (9-9, 23-22) and Texas State goes to UTSA (8-9, 24-20).

Last five in: Notre Dame, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Southern Miss

First five out: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Illinois, The Citadel, William and Mary

(photo courtesy of Valparaiso Media Relations)