Final Field Projections

 

Selection Monday is here.

 

Putting together our final projections was no easy task. Couple a multitude of upsets in conference tournaments with a bevy of bubble teams that all have flaws, and by the last few selections, it almost is like picking teams out of a hat.

 

Here’s our prediction of what the NCAA Committee will do today, with some extra thoughts below our projections.

 

* - automatic qualifier

 

	Baton Rouge		Houston
1	LSU (1)	1	Houston
2	UNC Wilmington*	2	Virginia
3	Tulane	3	UL Lafayette*
4	Lehigh*	4	VCU*
	Los Angeles		Lake Elsinore
1	UCLA (2)*	1	UC Santa Barbara
2	Auburn	2	Arizona State
3	Nevada	3	North Carolina
4	CSU Bakersfield*	4	Pepperdine*
	Gainesville		Tallahassee
1	Florida (3)*	1	Florida State*
2	Florida Atlantic	2	College of Charleston
3	USF	3	Maryland
4	Florida A&M*	4	Mercer*
	Coral Gables		Fullerton
1	Miami (4)	1	Cal State Fullerton*
2	Coastal Carolina	2	Southern Cal
3	Stony Brook*	3	St. John's*
4	FIU*	4	San Diego State*
	Champaign		Nashville
1	Illinois (5)	1	Vanderbilt
2	Notre Dame	2	Radford*
3	Bradley	3	California
4	Ohio*	4	Lipscomb*
	Louisville		Stillwater
1	Louisville (6)	1	Oklahoma State
2	Indiana	2	Arkansas
3	Wright State*	3	Oral Roberts*
4	Morehead State*	4	Canisius*
	Fort Worth		Dallas
1	TCU (7)	1	Dallas Baptist
2	East Carolina*	2	Oregon State
3	Michigan*	3	Texas*
4	Houston Baptist*	4	Columbia*
	Springfield		College Station
1	Missouri State (8)*	1	Texas A&M
2	Ole Miss	2	NC State
3	Iowa	3	Rice
4	Sacred Heart*	4	Texas Southern*

 

Last five in: Nevada, USF, North Carolina, Tulane, Bradley

First five out: North Florida, UC Irvine, Clemson, Southeastern Louisiana, Oregon

·        Starting with national seeds, we stuck with TCU based on the entire season, rather than a rough showing in the Big 12 Tournament. We can see this going to Texas A&M, but we really felt that the SEC getting two national seeds was enough, with the Aggies and Vanderbilt getting close. We had Missouri State in our projections as a national seed entering conference tourney play and feel good about the Bears getting rewarded based on the regular-season and tourney championships.

·    As for potential matchups for the Super Regionals, we’d like to see Florida and Florida State avoid each other, but we’re predicting the NCAA matches them up against each other.

·    The ACC Question – North Carolina or Clemson, Tigers or Tar Heels… we see one team getting in and one team getting left out. Clemson’s late charge included a series sweep at Florida State, which is tough to ignore. We ultimately gave the slight nod to the Tar Heels, who were 26 spots higher in RPI per WarrenNolan.com. We also liked that UNC played the seventh toughest schedule and went 23-19 against the Top 100 – only the elite teams around the country had more Top 100 wins.

·    That left us with a few spots remaining and teams like Tulane, South Florida, Nevada, Bradley, UNF, Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Miss and UC Irvine. Probably our biggest debate was Nevada and UNF. On one hand, Nevada didn’t play a Top 50 team. On the other, UNF went 19-0 against teams ranked 201 or worse. In the middle, the Wolf Pack went 31-13 against 51-200, while the Ospreys went 24-13. We chose Nevada despite a lower RPI. So where does that leave the others? Southeastern Louisiana ran away with the Southland, and Southern Miss finished with a flourish. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if either or both make the field, but that would come at the expense of teams like Tulane, South Florida, Bradley, Clemson or North Carolina. It’s always tough to predict how important regular-season titles are to the NCAA Committee. That’s where teams like Nevada and Southeastern Louisiana could be favorites over, say, Tulane. A note about Bradley: we were a little concerned with its 10-11 play in the MVC, but the RPI and strong showing in MVC tourney made it tough to leave the Braves out, particularly when two other MVC teams are No. 1 seeds.

·    Where’s the beef? There’s always a beef, well, almost always. We’d say that the Clemson/North Carolina pick will cause some discussion. If the Tigers make it, the Committee will have bypassed several mid-majors to include Clemson. Some would argue, including us, that one great weekend doesn’t make a season, and that the entirety of a season, including a regular-season title and solid RPI should be weighted more. Stay tuned, it’s always fun.