June 3, 2010

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2010 Regional Analysis and Predictions

Tempe

Arizona State is the No. 1 national seed and new head coach Tim Esmay - the skipper's interim title was removed Tuesday - guided the Sun Devils through the potent Pac-10. The Sun Devils are one of the more balanced team in the field, ranking 17th in the nation in batting average and third in ERA. There's not as much power as typical ASU teams, but it is the clear favorite, thanks in part to three solid starters led by Seth Blair. No. 2 San Diego has a Blair of its own in Kyle Blair, and he and Sammy Solis give the Toreros the chance to make some noise. Hawaii has some hot hitters who carried them to a WAC title, but the pitching is a little suspect. Milwaukee's Chad Pierce could give someone some trouble on the mound.

Phil: The Toreros will make a little noise, but don’t have the depth of the Sun Devils. ASU rolls into the Supers.

Sean: Arizona State has too much for this group. San Diego will have some troubles with Hawaii but ultimately will challenge ASU. The Sun Devils move on.

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Fayetteville

Top-seed Arkansas is trying to return to the College World Series and was handed a pair of upstarts in Washington State and Kansas State, as well as Grambling State out of the SWAC, the lowest-rated team in the field (that's a lot of States). The Hogs have a great one in lefty Drew Smyly, and they have a nice mix of speed and power on offense. Zach Cox ranks No. 13 in the nation in hitting, and Collin Kuhn and Brett Eibner can mash. WSU and KSU each finished third in their leagues, so this won't be an easy road for Arkansas. The Cougars play extremely hard under Donnie Marbut and have a knack to stay in games - 11 of 19 losses came by three or fewer runs. But then again, the Hogs know this. The two teams played four times last year, including three tight Arkansas wins in Fayetteville to open 2009 and a 10-3 win in the Norman Regional. KSU's Nick Martini gets on base, and the Wildcats will need him to get on a lot. Like WSU, the Wildcats scrap, and they are going to see a team just like them in WSU. Grambling State hopes it can pull a Texas Southern-style upset (Rice), but it will need everything to click.

Phil: The Hogs benefit from home cooking and squeak past the Cougars and Wildcats in an entertaining regional.

Sean: This one is pretty wide open, and the Cougars and Wildcats will be better prepared after appearing in their second straight Regional. Everyone will lose at least once, but Arkansas sneaks past Washington State in the end.

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Atlanta

Georgia Tech hosted last year and watched as Southern Miss won the Regional title. The Yellow Jackets have one of the most potent lineups in the country - Tony Plagman, Matt Skole, Derek Dietrich and Chase Burnette each have more than 15 homers and three others have 10-plus - but they were held to five or fewer runs 17 times, so they can be slowed. Alabama has the best shot with 6-6 Jimmy Nelson, once nicknamed Sasquatch, and 5-6 Nathan Kilcrease, or Peanut. Elon's Jimmy Reyes and a typical solid offense give the Phoenix an early shot. Mercer also has a shot to wreak some havoc. The Bears can pound it at the plate - Jacob Tanis has 21 bombs, and John Moreland has 20.

Phil: The Jackets have better arms and more balance. Tech wins it Sunday evening.

Sean: Something makes me want to pick Alabama, but I worry about the fact that Alabama was 2-10 in SEC series on the road until sweeping Tennessee to end the year. Tech's bullpen - a bit deeper than in years past - will be the key as the Jackets escape.
 

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Auburn

Balls are going to be flying out of Plainsman Park as each of the four teams blasted more than 70 homers. Auburn ranks seventh in the county in hitting, is first in homers and is ninth in scoring at better than 9 runs a game. Hunter Morris and Brian Fletcher, the son of former major leaguer Scott Fletcher, can flat out mash. Clemson has plenty of pop at the plate, but like Auburn, the question will be pitching, particularly if these Tigers fall into the losers' bracket. Southern Miss has a tough task ahead of it to reach the Supers again, but unbeaten Scott Copeland is the real deal on the mound. Jacksonville State hits .316 but has a team ERA over 6. At some point, the pitching problems will catch up with the Gamecocks.

Phil: Auburn is making its first NCAA appearance in five years. Clemson comes in and takes the battle of the Tigers.

Sean: It's been a magical season for Auburn, and I see it continuing. Clemson will make it a battle of Tigers, but Auburn advances. War Eagle.
 

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Myrtle Beach

Another region with a power surge - Coastal Carolina, College of Charleston and NC State each approached 100 homers. And one that could be wide open. Coastal Carolina won more than 50 games for the fourth time since 2005 and have more speed than many American-made cars. The Chants individually have a ton of stars who play incredible as a team. Another mid-major checks in at No. 2 as College of Charleston returns to the field. Like the Chants, the Cougars score a ton, and they like to run. Unlike the Chants, they don't have a ton of pitching depth. But, Charleston handed Coastal two of its seven losses this year (semi-staff days for both teams). NC State also scores, and the Poulk cousins make the Wolfpack go. Expect State to put up some numbers. Stony Brook has a great freshman in William Carmona and an ace in Nick Tropeano and proved it can play at this level with wins over Pepperdine and San Diego State. But there's too much power elsewhere in the bracket.

Phil: A lot of offense at the beach, with the Chanticleers outscoring the Wolfpack in the end to capture the Regional.

Sean: NC State is in a no-lose situation, the ACC power looking up at a couple mid-majors who have been winning for years. That makes the Pack very dangerous. I still see it coming down to Coastal and Charleston, with the Chants moving on in a thrilling Regional.

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Columbia

South Carolina continues to go about its business and win under Ray Tanner. This year's edition has some pop at the plate, but the arms shine - the Gamecocks rank fifth in the country with 9 Ks per nine innings. What makes this Region interesting is that Virginia Tech and The Citadel have arms to match South Carolina, and there will be Major League scouts keeping tabs on at least a half-dozen pitchers. Tech boasts pro-caliber talent all over the field, and the Bulldogs won a really strong Southern Conference. It won't be lost on South Carolina that Bucknell pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA history when it blanked Florida State in 2008.

Phil: There looks to be terrific pitching in Columbia. I think the Gamecocks are deeper than the Hokies and Bulldogs and survive on Monday.

Sean: I like everything that South Carolina and Virginia Tech have to offer. Normally, I'd go with the team that's been there and done that, but the Hokies are playing with a lot of confidence and I see them continuing a special year.
 

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Charlottesville

Virginia followed up a trip to Omaha by winning the ACC regular-season title. The Cavaliers don't have many weaknesses and are the rare team whose bullpen is about as strong as the front end of the rotation. On paper, it doesn't look like Virginia has a lot of power, but that's due in part to it playing in one of the bigger parks around. Ole Miss has one of the best arms in the country in Drew Pomeranz. The biggest question here is when does Mike Bianco summon his lefty - against a tough St. John's team or save him for a possible showdown with Virginia? Our bet is the latter, when he could square off with Danny Hultzen. That is, if St. John's and VCU don't spoil the fun. The Red Storm got hot at the right time and have a great one in Kyle Hansen (brother of former SJU star Craig Hansen). And VCU scraps big-time under longtime skipper Paul Keyes. Joe Van Meter ranks 12th in the nation in hitting.

Phil: The Cavaliers want a longer stay in Omaha than a year ago. The first step toward a return to the College World Series comes in the form of a regional title over the Rebels.

Sean: It wouldn't be a surprise if the bottom two teams wreak a little havoc, but Virginia and Ole Miss should be there in the end. The Cavaliers seem to be every bit as good as last year, when they beat the Rebels in the Super Regionals in Oxford. Ole Miss doesn't appear quite as strong, so I'm taking Virginia.
 

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Norman

California and North Carolina invade Oklahoma, home to the Sooners and Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts, in a bi-coastal Regional. And it's a pretty interesting mix of teams. The top three seeds feature above-average hitting and solid pitching, and ORU hits but is a little shaky on the mound. The Sooners boast the sons of a couple of former major leagues - Garrett Buechele (Steve) and Cameron Seitzer (Kevin) - and hit up and down the lineup. California is a surprise second seed but is prepped well after battling the rest of the powerful Pac-10 this year. Can North Carolina make another run to Omaha? It will take more consistent pitching than the Tar Heels showed most of the year, but it appears that everything is coming together at the right time. The player to watch for Oral Roberts is Seth Furmanek, who is a threat to go deep at any time. ORU will score some runs, but it may be tough to keep the others off the board.

Phil: The Sooners put this one away Sunday evening against the Tar Heels.

Sean: The Tar Heels are playing well and with a chip on their shoulder. That's enough to get them to the final, but OU has a little too much and get the nod.
 

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Austin

Who were those guys in the Longhorn uniforms at the Big 12 tourney? It sure didn’t look like the team that rolled through the conference during the regular season. Texas has the best staff in the nation, sporting a 2.53 ERA. Taylor Jungmann, Cole Green and Brandon Workman are a three-headed starting monster, and Chance Ruffin has left nothing to chance with six wins and 13 saves to go with his 0.77 ERA. The offense is solid, with more pop than a year ago. Rice struggled at times early in the year, but was the class of Conference USA. Anthony Rendon is one of the top bats in the nation, hitting .393 with 23 homers and 78 RBI. Louisiana-Lafayette got one of the final at-large spots and could be a tough out. Rider won the MAAC and will need to outscore the opponents.

Phil: Texas still has the bitter taste in its mouth of being national runner-up in 2009. The Longhorns start their Road to Omaha with a Regional win on Sunday.

Sean: Last year's Regional with Boston College and Army proved tough on Texas. The Longhorns remember that and will play like one of the best teams in the country this weekend.

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Fort Worth

TCU has a rotation to rival Texas and UCLA with Matt Purke (12-0), Steven Maxwell (10-1) and Kyle Winkler (10-1). The Frogs can hit a little as well, with a .343 batting average and 86 homers. Baylor finished sixth in the Big 12, but reached the title game in the conference tourney. Raynor Campbell has a nice combination of power and speed. Brooks Pinchard notched 10 saves for the Bears. Arizona struggled down the stretch, falling to seventh in the Pac-10. The Wildcats hit for average, but not a lot of power. Lamar was the survivor in the Southland tourney. Matison Smith got 10 wins for the Cardinals.

Phil: TCU wants another shot at Texas in the Super Regionals. The Frogs take care of business at home.

Sean: Baylor and Arizona have enough firepower to make a run, but TCU is too balanced. The Frogs leap again.

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Louisville

Louisville and Vanderbilt get together for a second straight year. The Cardinals use power and pitching, and the Commodores can match the arms. Thomas Royse has been terrific on the mound for UL. The Cards have five hitters with double-digit homers, including 20 by Phil Wunderlich. UL will be without skipper Dan McDonnell for the first three games as he serves a suspension from the Big East Tournament. Sonny Gray leads the Vandy staff with 100 strikeouts. Illinois State knocked off host Wichita State to win the MVC in Mark Kingston’s first year as head coach. Saint Louis put together a great week in winning the Atlantic 10 tourney.

Phil: Louisville has the deeper staff and bigger sticks to outlast Vanderbilt.

Sean: Vandy and Louisville should see each other a lot, but ultimately, the Cardinals advance.

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Norwich

Florida State is happy to be a No. 1 seed, not happy to head all the way up the East Coast to the state of Connecticut. The Seminoles rely on their offense, led by Tyler Holt and Mike McGee. In late-game situations, McGee is the man. He has four wins to go with his nine saves and a microscopic ERA of 0.41. UConn returns to the Big Dance after a 16-year absence. The Huskies led the Big East for most of the season, only to fall behind Louisville the final weekend. UConn has a nice balance of offense and pitching, with a team batting average of .319 and ERA of 3.91. Oregon returns to the NCAA tourney in just the second year after the program’s resurrection under head coach George Horton. The Ducks have good arms, but the hitting is a question mark. Central Connecticut State can hit, with Sean Allaire and Pat Epps both over .400. But the Blue Devils will struggle to keep the opposition off the scoreboard.

Phil: Florida State uses its bats and its experience to get past pesky Connecticut.

Sean: FSU is the smart choice, but I worry a bit that the Noles are on the road (most ACC road series came against bottom four teams in ACC). Sleeper alert... let's go with Oregon.

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Gainesville

Florida has had a terrific season, the top team in the best league. Matt den Dekker, Preston Tucker and Austin Maddox have excellent power and bat control. The pitching staff has been solid. Closer Kevin Chapman has been lights out with 11 saves. Florida Atlantic finished first in the Sun Belt in John McCormack’s second season as head coach. Andy Mee and Dan Scheffler lead the offense, but the starters have been inconsistent. Mee as closer means success, with 11 saves. Oregon State traverses the nation for its invitation to the Sunshine State. The Beavers have pretty good pitching, but not enough offense. Bethune-Cookman rolled through the MEAC again and could be a factor. The Wildcats can mash, with Peter O’Brien’s 20 dingers and 18 by Ryan Durrence.

Phil: The Gators feast on the field, finishing off the Owls on Sunday evening.

Sean: Oregon State will make a little noise, but Florida gets it done rather easily.

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Coral Gables

Two local teams and two imports will make for an intriguing regional. The Hurricanes have one of the top players in the nation in catcher Yasmani Grandal, the ACC Player of the Year. He is batting .422 with 14 homers and 56 RBI. All-conference pitcher Chris Hernandez has been terrific on the mound. Texas A&M is hot, finishing third in the Big 12 and capturing the conference tournament. The Aggies rely on their arms, in the Top 10 in the nation with a 3.48 ERA. Barret Loux and Michael Wacha lead the starters, while John Stilson is nasty out of the pen, with eight wins, nine saves, 106 strikeouts in 71 innings, and an ERA of 0.87. The player under the largest spotlight will be Garrett Wittels of FIU, who brings a 54-game hit streak to the party along with a batting average of .414. The Panthers will need to outscore the opposition to advance. Dartmouth won the Ivy League crown for the second straight season. The Big Green can hit, but will struggle on the mound.

Phil: The Hurricanes and Aggies will battle into Monday, with Texas A&M outlasting Miami to advance to its fifth Super Regional.

Sean: It will come down to pitching, and both Miami and A&M have a lot of it. The Aggies slip into the Super Regionals.

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Los Angeles

UCLA was the second-best team in the Pac-10, which says a lot this season. The Bruins have a terrific pitching staff, second in the nation with a 3.02 ERA. UCLA has three starters with nine wins and more than 100 strikeouts (Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Rob Rasmussen). The offense is solid enough to support that outstanding pitching. LSU put together a late-season run to win its third straight SEC tourney. The offense has been strong, led by familiar names from last year’s national championship team: Micah Gibbs, Blake Dean, Mikie Mahtook and Leon Landry. The pitching has been inconsistent, as the staff ERA is 5.52. If the Tigers are going to be a factor in the regional, starter Anthony Ranaudo and closer Matty Ott must return to 2009 form. UC Irvine finished second to Cal State Fullerton in the Big West. Pitching was again key for the Anteaters, with Daniel Bibona and Eric Pettis both posting nine wins. Kent State relies on its bats, including the 17 homers and 81 RBI by Anthony Gallas.

Phil: The Bruins have the superior starting staff. They might lose one game, but I don’t think they will lose two. The Tigers and Anteaters will make it entertaining, but UCLA prevails.

Sean: UCLA has been waiting for a year like this. It won't be easy. But the Bruins eliminate the national champs to move on.

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Fullerton

After a shaky start, Cal State Fullerton put together a great season. Gary Brown, the Big West Player of the Year, has missed eight games with a broken finger. The Titans need his bat (.438 batting average) and his legs (31 steals) in the lineup. Noe Ramirez and Daniel Renken both have double-digit wins and provide a deadly 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Fullerton was 0-2 in Omaha last year and would like to atone. Stanford doesn’t have great numbers, but it was good enough to finish fourth in the Pac-10. Kenny Diekroeger leads the offense with a .351 batting average. New Mexico relies on its offense, with a team batting average of .350 and slugging percentage of .502. Justin Howard has 10 bombs and 72 RBI to lead the Lobos. The Golden Gophers finished the season strong after a slow start. Minnesota won the regular-season title and the Big Ten tourney.

Phil: The arms of Fullerton will eventually quiet the bats of the Lobos to advance the Titans to the Super Regionals.

Sean: Fullerton gets a scare from Minnesota in the first game, but the Titans ultimately roll through the Regional.

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